| Risk tool | No of studies | n | Risk of bias | Inconsistency | Indirectness | Imprecision | Mean effect size (95% CI) | GRADE overall quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gurm risk tool (full model) | 1 | 22,572 | Very high1 | NA | High2 | Low | AUC= 0.875 (0.819-0.931) | VERY LOW |
| Gurm risk tool (reduced model) | 1 | 22,572 | Very high1 | NA | High2 | Low | AUC= 0.875 (0.823-0.931) | VERY LOW |
| GRACE score (<136) | 1 | 251 | Very high3 | NA | Not serious | Low | Sensitivity= 0% (0-46) | LOW |
| Very high3 | NA | Not serious | Low | Specificity= 75% (69-80) | LOW | |||
| GRACE score (136-158) | 1 | 251 | Very high3 | NA | Not serious | Low | Sensitivity= 0% (0-46) | LOW |
| Very high3 | NA | Not serious | Low | Specificity= 74% (68-80) | LOW | |||
| GRACE score (159-180) | 1 | 251 | Very high3 | NA | Not serious | High4 | Sensitivity= 33% (4-78) | VERY LOW |
| Very high3 | NA | Not serious | Low | Specificity= 75% (69-80) | LOW | |||
| GRACE score (>180) | 1 | 251 | Very high3 | NA | Not serious | Very high5 | Sensitivity= 67% (22-96) | VERY LOW |
| Very high3 | NA | Not serious | High6 | Specificity= 76% (70-81) | VERY LOW |
Downgraded by two increments due to very high risk of bias arising from multiple domains of the PROBAST risk of bias tool, namely due to unclear definition and assessment of predictors (timing and criteria not specified), inadequate sample size (<10 events per predictor) and concerns arising from the analysis method (model validated using random split sampling)
Downgraded by one increment due to high levels of concern surrounding the applicability of the risk prediction tool (not all predictors available at the intended time of assessment (prior to contrast administration))
Downgraded by two increments due to very high risk of bias arising from multiple domains of the PROBAST risk of bias tool, namely due to unclear definitions and assessments of predictors (timing and criteria not specified), inadequate sample size (<100 events) and incomplete analysis reporting (discrimination reported without calibration)
Downgraded by one increment due to the 95%CI overlapping the threshold corresponding to ‘low sensitivity’ (60%)
Downgraded by two increments due to the 95%CI overlapping both the threshold corresponding to ‘low sensitivity’ (60%) and ‘high sensitivity’ (80%)
Downgraded by one increment due to the 95%CI overlapping the threshold corresponding to ‘low specificity’ (80%)
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