Table 46Detailed Inputs Used to Estimate Transition Probability in the Post-Extended DAPT Phase of the Model

ParameterValueAlphaBeta95% CI LL95% CI ULDistribution
MI in MI patientOverall (annual)0.052995Beta
Year 1 (annual)0.1245731,0587,435
Year 2 (annual0.0180772446,505
Years 3 and 4 (annual)0.0163364416,308
Stroke in MI patientOverall (annual)0.010947Beta
Year 1 (annual)0.0221361888,305
Year 2 (annual0.005482746,675
Years 3 and 4 (annual)0.0052231416,608
Stroke in stroke patientOverall0.019660Beta
Year 10.0305334871,5463
Year 30.0175138381,5112
Year 50.0109348721,5078
MI in stroke patientOverall0.007512Beta
Year 10.01040816615,784
Year 30.00731535015,600
Year 50.00481538415,566
Post-MI death rateOverall2.301395Log normal
Years 1 to 3 men2.142.002.28
Years 1 to 3 women2.922.723.13
Years 3 to 5 men2.101.862.34
Years 3 to 5 women2.772.423.17
HR death post-strokeOverall1.633333Log normal
Year 11.41.31.5
Year 31.71.61.7
Year 51.81.71.8

95% CI LL = 95% confidence interval lower limit; 95% CI UL = 95% confidence interval upper limit; DAPT = dual anti-platelet therapy; HR = hazard ratio; MI = myocardial infarction.

From: Appendix 13, Pharmacoeconomics

Cover of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Clinical and Economic Impact of Standard Versus Extended Duration
Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Clinical and Economic Impact of Standard Versus Extended Duration [Internet].
CADTH Optimal Use Report, No. 9.2b.
Wells GA, Elliott J, Kelly S, et al.
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