Table 45Detailed Inputs Used to Estimate Transition Probabilities in the Extended Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Phase of the Model

ParameterStudyTreatmentMonthly RateAlphaBetaStudy Duration (Months)Distribution
All-cause deathNIPPON226- to 12-month DAPT0.000806161,63812Beta
Extended DAPT0.00035371,646
OPTIDUAL296- to 12-month DAPT0.0009562467336
Extended DAPT0.00063416685
ITALIC306- to 12-month DAPT0.0006601191518
Extended DAPT0.00120320904
PRODIGY246- to 12-month DAPT0.0022282969418
Extended DAPT0.00245232693
ARCTIC336- to 12-month DAPT0.000826963217
Extended DAPT0.0006387638
DAPT236- to 12-month DAPT0.000807845,70218
Extended DAPT0.0010051065,756
DES-LATE266- to 12-month DAPT0.000530322,48224
Extended DAPT0.000757462,485
Weighted average6- to 12-month DAPT0.000831
Extended DAPT0.000930
BleedingOPTIDUAL296- to 12-month DAPT: all0.00079736Beta
6- to 12-month DAPT — major0.0001594693
6- to 12-month —DAPT —minor0.00063816681
Extended DAPT all0.000753
Extended DAPT— major0.0001594697
Extended DAPT—minor0.00059415686
ITALIC306- to 12-month DAPT all0.00036018
6- to 12-month DAPT— major0.0000000926
6- to 12-month DAPT— minor0.0003606920
Extended DAPT all0.000601
Extended DAPT— major0.0002414920
Extended DAPT—minor0.0003616918
ARCTIC336- to 12-month DAPT major0.000000064117
Extended DAPT—major0.0000000643

DES-LATE26

(Major)

6- to 12-month DAPT all0.000398242,49024
Extended DAPT all0.000560342,497
Weighted average6- to 12-month DAPT all0.000712
Extended DAPT all0.000826
6- to 12-month DAPT—major0.000233
Extended DAPT— major0.000365
6- to 12-month DAPT— minor0.000479
Extended DAPT— minor0.000462
Non-fatal MINIPPON226- to 12-month DAPT0.00020241,65012Beta
Extended DAPT0.00005011,652
OPTIDUAL296- to 12-month DAPT0.0006381668136
Extended DAPT0.00043611690
ITALIC306- to 12-month DAPT0.0007201291418
Extended DAPT0.0005419915
ARCTIC336- to 12-month DAPT0.000826963217
Extended DAPT0.0008219636
DAPT236- to 12-month DAPT0.0021412235,56318
Extended DAPT0.0011471215,741
DES-LATE266- to 12-month DAPT0.000447272,48724
Extended DAPT0.000313192,512
Weighted average6- to 12-month DAPT0.001268
Extended DAPT0.000725
Non-fatal strokeNIPPON226- to 12-month DAPT0.00035371,64712Beta
Extended DAPT0.00030261,647
OPTIDUAL296- to 12-month DAPT0.000279769036
Extended DAPT0.0001985696
ITALIC306- to 12-month DAPT0.000360692018
Extended DAPT0.0004217917
ARCTIC336- to 12-month DAPT0.000367463717
Extended DAPT0.0005476639
DAPT236- to 12-month DAPT0.000461485,73818
Extended DAPT0.000408435,819
DES-LATE266- to 12-month DAPT0.000348212,49324
Extended DAPT0.000346212,510
Weighted average6- to 12-month DAPT0.000400
Extended DAPT0.000377
Stent thrombosisNIPPON226- to 12-month DAPT0.00010121,65212Beta
Extended DAPT0.00005011,652
OPTIDUAL296- to 12-month DAPT0.000040169636
Extended DAPT0.0001193698
ITALIC306- to 12-month DAPT0.000360692018
Extended DAPT0.0001803921
ARCTIC336- to 12-month DAPT0.000275363817
Extended DAPT0.0000000645
DAPT236- to 12-month DAPT0.000711745,71218
Extended DAPT0.000218235,829
Weighted average6- to 12-month DAPT0.000496
Extended DAPT0.000165
Urgent revascularizationITALIC306- to 12-month DAPT0.000540991718Beta
Extended DAPT0.0004818916
ARCTIC336- to 12-month DAPT0.000826963217
Extended DAPT0.0002743642
Weighted average6- to 12-month DAPT0.000657
Extended DAPT0.000396

DAPT: dual anti-platelet therapy; MI: myocardial infarction.

From: Appendix 13, Pharmacoeconomics

Cover of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Clinical and Economic Impact of Standard Versus Extended Duration
Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Clinical and Economic Impact of Standard Versus Extended Duration [Internet].
CADTH Optimal Use Report, No. 9.2b.
Wells GA, Elliott J, Kelly S, et al.
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